Scientists Use Implicit Test to Explore the Changeability Feature of Verbal Probability
Author: Prof. LI Shu’s Research Team
Uncertainty exists in many aspects of our daily lives; thus, we use probability predictions to mitigate and prepare for uncertain events. There are two views on uncertainty. One view indicates that uncertainty is changeable, whereas the other view states that uncertainty is predetermined and changeless. People often use two types of probabilistic statements to transmit uncertainty: verbal probability (e.g., possible) and numerical probability (e.g., 40%). When people perceive uncertainty as changeable, the selected probability expression allows for potential changes. In this situation, verbal probability is more capable of expressing the desired changeability. In contrast, when people perceive uncertainty as changeless, the selected probability expression has a stable and explicit interpretation with insignificant variation. In this case, numerical probability is an ideal expression. The above reasoning process leads to the following assumptions: verbal probability expression reflects the ‘changeable’ view of uncertainty, whereas numerical probability expression reflects the ‘changeless’ view of uncertainty.
In order to verify the above hypothesis, Prof. LI Shu’s research team from Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences used an implicit paradigm to test the bidirectional relationship between verbal/numerical probabilities and changeable/changeless uncertainties. Participants need to evaluate the beauty of several font types in a sentence that described the likelihood of an event happening to an object with changeable or changeless uncertainties through verbal or numerical probability expression. If the two concepts are more compatible, participant would judge the font type in this sentence more beautiful.
Three studies and a pilot study examined if verbal and numerical probabilities were closely associated with changeable and changeless uncertainties. In the pilot study, the researchers found that people perceive animate objects as changeable and inanimate objects as changeless. Then, the researchers used the implicit font-type rating task to test the bidirectional relationship between verbal/numerical probabilities and changeable/changeless uncertainties in scenarios where the same uncertain event occurred to animate/inanimate objects (Table1; Study 1). They found that verbal probability was likely to be used to predict the likelihood of events that affect animate objects but fails to find an association between inanimate objects and numerical probability. Because Arabic numerals (e.g., 50%) may not be as favorable as real word characters (e.g., fifty percent) for the font-type rating task, the researchers modified the experimental material in Study 1 by replacing the Arabic numerals with Chinese characters (Study 2). They found that people prefer verbal and numerical probability expressions when the uncertainties are from animate beings and inanimate objects. As animate/inanimate is not the only representation of changeable/changeless, they further investigated associations between verbal/numerical probabilities and changeable/changeless uncertainties in scenarios in which the same uncertain event occurred to the same inanimate object but with different changeable situations using the same implicit task (Study 3). They found that people prefer verbal probability expressions when uncertainties are changeable and that people prefer numerical probability expressions when uncertainties are changeless in the two scenarios that do not utilize living agents.
In this study, the researchers found that verbal probability possesses an additional semantic feature, which named changeability, except for directionality, internal/external attribution, self-serving interpretation and animacy. Verbal probability plays an important role in describing the changing world, regardless of whether the changeability feature is supported. This result may be used to explain the popular use of verbal probability in daily life. Therefore, although changeability is a late addition to the group of verbal probability features, it is not a simple accumulation of terminology. Changeability is important for enabling researchers and practitioners to understand how people react or adapt to a changing world. Research should continue to examine this topic to clarify its effects on decision-making under risk and uncertainty conditions.
This research was partially supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No. 2011CB711000), the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KSCX2-EW-J-8), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31170976; 31300843), Foundation for the Supervisor of the Beijing Excellent Doctoral Dissertation (No. 20138012501), and the Scientific Foundation of Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. Y2CQ043005). The authors express their gratitude to Dr. Hua-Jian Cai for his helpful suggestions and advice on implicit experimental design.
Wang Y, Du X, Rao L and Li S (2014). Probability expression for changeable and changeless uncertainties: an implicit test. Frontiers in Psychology, 5:1313. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01313
